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Wednesday, January 9, 2008
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4678; (P) 1.4709; (R1) 1.4738;EUR/USD's correction from 1.4823 resumes in early session and is now pressing 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.4661). At this point, intraday bias will remain on the downside as long as 1.4741 minor resistance holds. See below for more details:
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4678; (P) 1.4709; (R1) 1.4738;EUR/USD's correction from 1.4823 resumes in early session and is now pressing 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.4661). At this point, intraday bias will remain on the downside as long as 1.4741 minor resistance holds. See below for more details:
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD
EUR/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4678; (P) 1.4709; (R1) 1.4738;
EUR/USD's correction from 1.4823 resumes in early session and is now pressing 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.4661). At this point, intraday bias will remain on the downside as long as 1.4741 minor resistance holds. Further decline could still be seen. But still, downside is expected to be contained by 1.4581 support (near to 50% retracement of 1.4309 to 1.4823 at 1.4566) and bring rally resumption. Above 1.4741 will shift intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4823 high. Also, the rally from 1.4309 is expected to extend further to retest 1.4966 high and 1.5 psychological resistance after finishing the current consolidation.
In the bigger picture, with 1.3581 resistance turned support remains intact, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in force. Regardless of internal structure, it is treated as resumption of long term up trend from 0.8223 (00 low) to 1.3668 (04 high) and has just failed 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.3668 from 1.1639 at 1.5004 target which overlaps with 1.5 psychological resistance. With subsequent correction completed with three waves down to 1.4309, rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of such up trend but sustained trading above 1.5 key resistance is needed to confirm this case and bring rally to next projection target of 100% projection at 1.7048. On the downside, below 1.4468 support will argue that correction from 1.4966 is still in progress for another fall to below 1.4309 before completion.
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4678; (P) 1.4709; (R1) 1.4738;
EUR/USD's correction from 1.4823 resumes in early session and is now pressing 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.4661). At this point, intraday bias will remain on the downside as long as 1.4741 minor resistance holds. Further decline could still be seen. But still, downside is expected to be contained by 1.4581 support (near to 50% retracement of 1.4309 to 1.4823 at 1.4566) and bring rally resumption. Above 1.4741 will shift intraday bias back to the upside for retesting 1.4823 high. Also, the rally from 1.4309 is expected to extend further to retest 1.4966 high and 1.5 psychological resistance after finishing the current consolidation.
In the bigger picture, with 1.3581 resistance turned support remains intact, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in force. Regardless of internal structure, it is treated as resumption of long term up trend from 0.8223 (00 low) to 1.3668 (04 high) and has just failed 61.8% projection of 0.8223 to 1.3668 from 1.1639 at 1.5004 target which overlaps with 1.5 psychological resistance. With subsequent correction completed with three waves down to 1.4309, rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of such up trend but sustained trading above 1.5 key resistance is needed to confirm this case and bring rally to next projection target of 100% projection at 1.7048. On the downside, below 1.4468 support will argue that correction from 1.4966 is still in progress for another fall to below 1.4309 before completion.
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Support and Resistance
Support and Resistance is one of the most widely used concepts in trading. Strangely enough, everyone seems to have their own idea on how you should measure support and resistance.
Let’s just take a look at the basics first.
Let’s just take a look at the basics first.
Look at the diagram above. As you can see, this zigzag pattern is making its way up (bull market). When the market moves up and then pulls back, the highest point reached before it pulled back is now resistance.
As the market continues up again, the lowest point reached before it started back is now support. In this way resistance and support are continually formed as the market oscillates over time. The reverse of course is true of the downtrend.
Plotting Support and Resistance
One thing to remember is that support and resistance levels are not exact numbers. Often times you will see a support or resistance level that appears broken, but soon after find out that the market was just testing it. With candlestick charts, these "tests" of support and resistance are usually represented by the candlestick shadows.
As the market continues up again, the lowest point reached before it started back is now support. In this way resistance and support are continually formed as the market oscillates over time. The reverse of course is true of the downtrend.
Plotting Support and Resistance
One thing to remember is that support and resistance levels are not exact numbers. Often times you will see a support or resistance level that appears broken, but soon after find out that the market was just testing it. With candlestick charts, these "tests" of support and resistance are usually represented by the candlestick shadows.
Notice how the shadows of the candles tested the 2500 resistance level. At those times it seemed like the market was "breaking" resistance. However, in hindsight we can see that the market was merely testing that level.
So how do we truly know if support or resistance is broken?
There is no definite answer to this question. Some argue that a support or resistance level is broken if the market can actually close past that level. However, you will find that this is not always the case. Let's take our same example from above and see what happened when the price actually closed past the 2500 resistance level.
So how do we truly know if support or resistance is broken?
There is no definite answer to this question. Some argue that a support or resistance level is broken if the market can actually close past that level. However, you will find that this is not always the case. Let's take our same example from above and see what happened when the price actually closed past the 2500 resistance level.
In this case, the price had closed twice above the 2500 resistance level but both times ended up falling back down below it. If you had believed that these were real breakouts and bought this pair, you would've been seriously hurtin! Looking at the chart now, you can visually see and come to the conclusion that the resistance was not actually broken; and that it is still very much in tact and now even stronger.
So to help you filter out these false breakouts, you should think of support and resistance more of as "zones" rather than concrete numbers. One way to help you find these zones is to plot support and resistance on a line chart rather than a candlestick chart. The reason is that line charts only show you the closing price while candlesticks add the extreme highs and lows to the picture. These highs and lows can be misleading because often times they are just the "knee-jerk" reactions of the market. It's like when someone is doing something really strange, but when asked about it, they simply reply, "Sorry, it's just a reflex."
When plotting support and resistance, you don't want the reflexes of the market. You only want to plot its intentional movements.
Looking at the line chart, you want to plot your support and resistance lines around areas where you can see the price forming several peaks or valleys.
So to help you filter out these false breakouts, you should think of support and resistance more of as "zones" rather than concrete numbers. One way to help you find these zones is to plot support and resistance on a line chart rather than a candlestick chart. The reason is that line charts only show you the closing price while candlesticks add the extreme highs and lows to the picture. These highs and lows can be misleading because often times they are just the "knee-jerk" reactions of the market. It's like when someone is doing something really strange, but when asked about it, they simply reply, "Sorry, it's just a reflex."
When plotting support and resistance, you don't want the reflexes of the market. You only want to plot its intentional movements.
Looking at the line chart, you want to plot your support and resistance lines around areas where you can see the price forming several peaks or valleys.
Mohammad Arslan Khan
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Here we will teach you and will guide you through the rest of all decision making programs and making of some good profits under Professional education about Forex. Some trading systems are dicussed here by"Pip-Machine".
Note: We are soon providing signals.
Features of P.F.I.G:
>> Our pips are Guaranteed:Daily 50 pips is what we are committed to our clients.
>> On time Signals:We provide on time signals so you dont miss the trade.
>> Through Msn and Yahoo: Team is always available on chat servers so MSN and Yahoo can be your on time signal resource also.
>> Via SMS:We have service of providing Signals through Mobile phone SMS to you!
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Money Managament is used in Investment management and deals with the question of how much risk a decision maker should take in situations where uncertainty is present. More precisely what percentage or what part of the decision maker's wealth should be put into risk in order to maximize the decision maker's utility function.
Money management gives practical advice among others for gambling and for stock trading as well. Money management can mean gaining greater control over outgoings and incomings, both in personal and business perspective. Greater money management can be achieved by establishing budgets and analysing costs and income etc.
Lowest Use of Total Capital's %: When you trade without money management rules, you are in fact gambling. You are not looking at the long term return on your investment. Instead you are only looking for that “jackpot”. Money management rules will not only protect us, but they will make us very profitable in the long run.So we know that money management will make us money in the long run, What would happen if you didn’t use money management rules? Yes Ofcourse! you will Lose your money soon! Just try to use the Maximum Minimum of your capital's percentage. Recommended is 3% to 5%.
Stop/Loss (S/L):Why we use Stop/Loss? to limit our losses? what if they usually hit the exact point or close our position in loss? what if it hits our Stop/Loss and just goes below 2 points more down/above and start going to our target? would not this will hurt us alot? Yes ofcourse it will !But what if it hits your Stop/Loss and goes some 40 points more down/above ? and could eat some good percentage of your account? In the above case, if our Stop/Loss hits and goes just 2 points down/above and then start going to our target, only happen when we have bad entries, I will dicuss it later but this Stop/Loss can really limit your losses to some good extent, so you never lose your account's 50% or whole account in Single Trade.
Target Profits (T/P) :Why target profits? to get the exact target point of profit? what if our target hits and goes more than 20 pips down/above? Would not this can make us feel bad that we missed some 20 pips ( can be $20, $200, $2000 etc etc ). But in this case if target is Resistance1 (will be discussed in next article) than surely you wont have any regrets because while hitting that T/P your position will bounce back and you can see if there was no T/P you would have lose what you have made by some good entry or in few minutes or in hours.
Buy/Stops (B/S) :Buy stops are used to safe what we made, like if there is a LONG/BUY position which is entered at 2.0540 and we are targetting 2.0590 and at present we reached 2.0585 then if we have our S/L at 2.0520 we will move it to B/S 2.0560 or 2.0565 etc etc so if the position reverses we wont lose some good made pips.
Money management gives practical advice among others for gambling and for stock trading as well. Money management can mean gaining greater control over outgoings and incomings, both in personal and business perspective. Greater money management can be achieved by establishing budgets and analysing costs and income etc.
Lowest Use of Total Capital's %: When you trade without money management rules, you are in fact gambling. You are not looking at the long term return on your investment. Instead you are only looking for that “jackpot”. Money management rules will not only protect us, but they will make us very profitable in the long run.So we know that money management will make us money in the long run, What would happen if you didn’t use money management rules? Yes Ofcourse! you will Lose your money soon! Just try to use the Maximum Minimum of your capital's percentage. Recommended is 3% to 5%.
Stop/Loss (S/L):Why we use Stop/Loss? to limit our losses? what if they usually hit the exact point or close our position in loss? what if it hits our Stop/Loss and just goes below 2 points more down/above and start going to our target? would not this will hurt us alot? Yes ofcourse it will !But what if it hits your Stop/Loss and goes some 40 points more down/above ? and could eat some good percentage of your account? In the above case, if our Stop/Loss hits and goes just 2 points down/above and then start going to our target, only happen when we have bad entries, I will dicuss it later but this Stop/Loss can really limit your losses to some good extent, so you never lose your account's 50% or whole account in Single Trade.
Target Profits (T/P) :Why target profits? to get the exact target point of profit? what if our target hits and goes more than 20 pips down/above? Would not this can make us feel bad that we missed some 20 pips ( can be $20, $200, $2000 etc etc ). But in this case if target is Resistance1 (will be discussed in next article) than surely you wont have any regrets because while hitting that T/P your position will bounce back and you can see if there was no T/P you would have lose what you have made by some good entry or in few minutes or in hours.
Buy/Stops (B/S) :Buy stops are used to safe what we made, like if there is a LONG/BUY position which is entered at 2.0540 and we are targetting 2.0590 and at present we reached 2.0585 then if we have our S/L at 2.0520 we will move it to B/S 2.0560 or 2.0565 etc etc so if the position reverses we wont lose some good made pips.
